Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
